In Sweden, a study initiated by Scania found that a fossil-free commercial transport system in the timeframe of the Paris Agreement target is not only possible, but also financially attractive from a societal perspective.
Tracing the road to zero emissions by 2050 through a back-cast modelling approach, the analysis shows the viability of concurrent pathways. The research covers three transport segments: long haulage, distribution and city bus, and four countries: Sweden, Germany, China and the US.
New technologies can take a long time to achieve wide adoption, as the existing stock of vehicles turns over slowly. To be fossil-free by 2050 therefore requires, changes at scale already by 2025, including not only new technologies but also new infrastructure. Further, we need to achieve an average global growth rate of new fossil-free powertrain technologies of at least 5 to 10 percentage points per year and achieve full sales penetration by 2040. To reach this goal, the transport sector and adjacent industries must initiate change rapidly and immediately.
Based on the findings from The Pathways Study, a coalition of companies is being formed with the ambition to further accelerate the speed of change and to lead the change starting here and now.