Bellwether stocks of the Advanced Bioeconomy report good vibes: shoulda put a ring on ‘em?


Two bellwether public stocks of the advanced bioeconomy — Amyris and Renewable Energy Group — reported strong quarterly and annual results this past week, and Aemetis’ stock has been on a real tear in recent days as momentum gathers around its plans for cellulosic ethanol production for the California market and the company announced that its India biodiesel high FFA pretreatment plant upgrade is complete.

Amyris shares have been getting stronger for six months now — tripling in the past 180 days. Aemetis stock doubled its price last week and traded 35 million shares Friday, with only 20 million shares outstanding. Price was up 170% at the high on Friday alone.

Are these signs temporary anomalies, or is something else afoot?

Right before we jump into a report on the three companies and their performance, let’s remember these prescient slides from Denis Luquin, the managing partner of Sofinnova Ventures.  Luquin is pointing to what is known as the Gartner Curve of Innovation — where a new technology reaches a peak of irrational exuberance, crashes thereafter to a trough of disillusionment, and recovers to slope of enlightenment.