Chatham House and FSC warn of biofuels push leading to deforestation
Expanded biofuel mandates and targets could create 36 million hectares of additional cropland pressure by 2030 – an area roughly the size of Germany – increasing competition for land and crops, pushing up prices and heightening risks to forests and biodiversity.
The warning comes as agricultural markets already face challenges linked to a severe El Niño event and geopolitical conflict. Around 30% of global crude oil and fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the same disruption driving interest in alternative fuels is also affecting the inputs needed to grow many biofuel feedstocks.
The research finds:
· The land footprint of biofuel production could more than double. Around 32 million hectares were used to grow biofuel feedstocks in 2023. Global biofuel demand was already expected to require a further 20 million hectares by 2030. Under new expanded mandates and targets, additional demand could reach 36 million* hectares, bringing the total implied footprint to roughly 68 million hectares.
· Rising biofuel demand could push up prices of corn, soybeans and vegetable oils. Roughly 40% of US corn demand already comes from ethanol production, and new federal targets would raise biofuel requirements to record levels, including a 60% increase in biodiesel and renewable diesel production.
· India is drawing increasing volumes of food crops into ethanol production. Maize is already the country’s leading ethanol feedstock, while an additional 5.2 million tons of rice has been allocated to ethanol production.
· Indonesia’s higher biodiesel mandate could reshape palm-oil demand and trade. The country has moved towards a 50% palm-oil biodiesel blend and has restricted exports of some feedstocks to secure domestic supplies. The paper warns that further expansion of feedstock plantations could increase pressure on forests, either directly or by displacing other agricultural production.
· Higher mandates could raise costs for both taxpayers and consumers. Rising feedstock and input costs could squeeze producer margins, increasing pressure for subsidies and drawing public funds away from priorities that support economic growth and wider social benefits.
· The research argues that biofuels can provide a targeted option for existing vehicle fleets and sectors that remain difficult to electrify, but it questions large-scale expansion in passenger vehicles, where electrification is generally more efficient and cheaper to run.
Category: Fuels
