Study shows transformtional impact of expanded biofuel demand on US ag
In Illinois, a comprehensive new study from S&P Global Energy finds expanded biofuel demand could transform American agriculture, reignite rural economies and provide global food and energy security. Commissioned by U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action (USFRA), the research, titled “Fueling Agriculture: Biofuels as the Catalyst,” offers a detailed, evidence-based assessment of agriculture’s future and presents a data-driven roadmap for sustainable growth.
Under an optimized high-growth scenario, the study projects transformative outcomes:
· Tripled Global Biofuel Production: Driven by agriculture technology and innovation, global feedstock output could triple biofuel production by 2050, expanding renewable fuels to capture a significantly larger share of the approximately 940-billion-gallon global liquid fuel market – including marine and aviation fuels.
· Consumer Benefits: Historical price analysis demonstrates that ethanol frequently trades at a discount to gasoline, and, through its naturally high octane content, functions as a cost-effective blend component that can improve blending economics and lower finished fuel costs.
· Accelerated Innovation: When markets strengthen, investment follows. Strong agricultural demand for food and biofuel would drive adoption of yield-enhancing technologies including advanced seeds, precision agriculture, digital farm management, and regenerative practices. U.S. corn yields could grow at approximately 1.6% annually through 2050—enabling nearly 50% more production without expanding acreage.
· Preserved Farmland and Income: Expanded biofuel demand would prevent a sharp decline in crop acreage, stabilizing farm incomes and supporting continued investment in rural communities. Total U.S. corn acres would stabilize at 97.5 million acres in 2050, just 1% below 2025 levels. Expanded economic activity would also support input suppliers (i.e., equipment, seed, crop protection, and fertilizer providers).
· Enhanced Food Security: Biofuel growth would simultaneously increase food and feed supplies by 45% compared to baseline scenarios. More than 50% of total supply growth remains directed toward food and feed uses.
Category: Fuels
