Explanding Brazilian second-crop corn could boost SAF production
In Brazil, expansion of ethanol production from Brazil’s second-crop corn could support the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) while potentially limiting global land-use change and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is the conclusion of a new study led by Agroicone and published in Agricultural Economics.
The research analyzes how rising demand for corn ethanol in Brazil, partly driven by emerging SAF markets—could affect global agricultural markets, land use, and carbon emissions. Using a global agricultural trade model combined with a land-use greenhouse gas accounting framework, the study evaluates multiple scenarios of ethanol expansion and supply responses in Brazil.
The findings show that when corn production expands through Brazil’s double-cropping system, where corn is planted after soybeans on the same land within the same year, additional ethanol supply can be achieved primarily through agricultural intensification rather than cropland expansion. This significantly reduces pressure for new land conversion compared with scenarios in which additional corn production would require expanding agricultural land.
Brazil’s second-crop corn system already accounts for most of the country’s corn production, allowing for rapid growth in output without proportional increases in cultivated area. When this production system was incorporated into the economic modelling used in the study, the land-use change associated with ethanol production drops substantially in Brazil, compared to scenario base —from roughly 40,000 hectares per billion liters of ethanol to about 7,000 hectares, in scenarios where changes in other variables were not considered.
The analysis also shows that ethanol produced from second-crop corn can achieve very low or even negative lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), depending on supply responses and land-use dynamics. These results are driven by four main factors: the supply elasticity of corn, the use of cropland already cultivated within the same year, the use of renewable energy sources in ethanol processing, and the production of corn co-products that substitute for soybean meal in animal feed markets.
Category: Fuels
