Biomethane could cover 70% of shipping’s early IMO fuel demand
In Denmark, the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping projects global biomethane supply could reach 21 billion cubic meters by 2030 under its base case, enough in theory to cover about 70% of the low emissions fuel demand created by the proposed IMO Net-Zero Framework. A stronger policy driven scenario could lift supply to 52 billion cubic meters.
The center estimates the IMO framework could generate unconstrained demand equivalent to 29.7 billion cubic meters of biomethane in 2030. Actual use would be lower because only methane capable vessels can consume the fuel, and shipping would compete with other sectors for supply.
The analysis identifies mass balance accounting as a key condition for scaling marine biomethane. Allowing certified biomethane injected into gas grids to be credited to ships bunkering elsewhere would let the industry use existing LNG infrastructure instead of building physically segregated supply chains.
The center said biomethane could become one of shipping’s few scalable near term compliance options if the IMO recognizes a credible global mass balance system.
Category: Sustainable Marine Fuels
