El Niño could affect soybean planting and wheat quality in Brazil, study finds
In Brazil, Globorural reported that The El Niño phenomenon is expected to have distinct impacts on Brazilian agriculture throughout the spring and summer of 2026/27, with excessive rainfall in the South, irregular rainfall distribution in the Central-West, and below-normal heat and rainfall in areas of the Southeast and Northeast.
An analysis by TAG Investimentos indicates that the effects of the phenomenon have already begun to appear in the country and may intensify between September 2026 and March 2027.
Official probabilities used in the analysis indicate a 100% chance of the phenomenon occurring between July 2026 and January 2027, 97% between February and April, and 82% between March and May.
In the South, where the phenomenon usually favors above-average rainfall, excess moisture can hinder the progress of agricultural activities. The analysis points to a risk of waterlogging, fungal diseases, and losses in winter cereals, as well as difficulties for soybean planting.
In the South, the excessive rainfall recorded in July has already saturated soils in some areas and may delay soybean planting, according to the report. In the Midwest, the main risk is the occurrence of dry spells during the spring, which could compromise crop establishment.
For corn, risk is related both to excessive rainfall in the South during the first crop planting and to the possibility of a reduced window for the 2027 second crop.
Category: Food & Agriculture
