New study shows opportunity of sorghum ethanol for South Africa
In South Africa, the Localisation Support Fund published its latest research: the South African Sorghum Bioethanol Study, prepared by Blueprint Holdings (Pty) Ltd. South Africa imports nearly all of its liquid fuel. Two of its largest refineries closed in 2022 and 2023. Gasoline prices have doubled in a decade. Against that backdrop, this study asks a practical question: can South Africa produce a meaningful share of its own fuel, from a crop it already grows, through a value chain that creates rural jobs and retains economic value at home?
The answer is yes – and the numbers are closer than most people assume.
The study’s financial model assesses six feedstock configurations. Grain sorghum emerges as the strongest performer, generating positive EBITDA of R1.94 per litre. The full capital recovery gap amounts to just 1.66 ZAc per litre of petrol under an E2 blending mandate – the smallest cross-subsidy requirement of any configuration modelled. Farmers can participate profitably at modelled feedstock prices. And every litre of grain sorghum ethanol produced generates R5.73 in Gross Value Added for the South African economy.
The August 2025 gazetting of a regulated bioethanol transfer price removed the last major regulatory barrier to a domestic market. The window is open. The question now is whether the sector will move with sufficient urgency to build an industry behind it.
Category: Fuels
