The Pure Player: XCF Global Pursues a Winning Hand in SAF

Somewhere near Virginia City.

The sun sets blood-red over the Nevada desert. A wind kicks up the dust along a broken rail spur. Inside the Old SAF Hotel—half saloon, half mirage—the lamps flicker as the dealer fans a fresh deck.

At the felt-covered table, the chairs are full tonight.

There’s Wyatt Earp, eyes sharp as his boots are clean, here to keep the peace—or tip the balance. John Wesley Harding lounges in the shadows, unpredictable, deadly efficient. Across from them, a young Mark Twain scratches notes into a leather-bound journal, one eyebrow raised, unsure whether to report the facts or write the myth. A mysterious oilman, passing through town, is down on chips but remains dangerous, he never speaks, just growls “fossil” from time to time. 

Then comes the newcomer. A public company, no aliases, no shell games. XCF Global (NASDAQ: SAFX), the only pure-play SAF firm in the United States—and maybe the world—slides into its seat. A hush falls. The stakes? Sky-high. The blinds? Doubled. The prize? A shot at dominance in a $250 billion global sustainable aviation fuel market. And just off the interstate at the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Complex, XCF holds the only working plant in sight.

The dealer nods. The cards are dealt.

The Deal

This isn’t XCF’s first round.

The New Rise Reno facility—once a busted flush under previous owners—has been rebuilt and retooled. Commissioned in February 2025, it started neat SAF production by March. In these early hands, the facility plays a mixed strategy: full-capacity renewable diesel production during ramp-up, with SAF resuming in Q3. The cards are modular—drop-in SAF or diesel, depending on market winds.

The table watches. Mark Twain jots: “A bet on American renewal, dressed in steel and steam.”

The Flop

Here come the feedstocks. Domestic. Durable. Decisive.

ISCC-certified distillers corn oil—once a throwaway byproduct of U.S. ethanol—is now a ticket to low-carbon riches. Crude degummed soybean oil rides shotgun. All of it sourced in the U.S., much of it thanks to a supply agreement with Phillips 66.

There’s no imported mystery oil here. No palm plantations, no land-use shell games. XCF’s bet is on agricultural residue, not food crops, and on rural revival, not overseas risk.

John Wesley Harding finally leans forward: “Hell of a hand if it holds.”

Fourth Street

Fourth Street is where technologies are tested. Where lesser players bluff and better ones reveal their strength.

New Rise Reno brings firepower.

Axens hydrotreating and hydroisomerization convert oils into clean-burning middle distillates. Linde’s hydrogen reformer powers the transformation. Alfa Laval handles pretreatment, Kinder Morgan scrubs the gas, Evoqua handles the wastewater—anaerobic, clean, tight.

Behind the scenes, New Rise Reno runs like a frontier fortress:

• 38M gallons per year neat SAF capacity
• 3,000 barrels/day
• 5M gallons of on-site storage
• 16-car heated rail spur
• Qualified for RFS and LCFS credits across CA, OR, and WA
• Self-powered, water-recovering, and expansion-ready

Twain taps his pen. “Like a Mississippi steamer—but vertical.”

The River

The real gamble? Scale.

Most SAF startups have barely anted up. XCF’s playing for volume—fast. Three new cards on the horizon:

• New Rise Reno 2 (~40M gallons/year by 2027)
• Ft. Myers and Wilson (~80M combined by 2028)

That’s ~160 million gallons of neat SAF annually by 2028. All modular. Patent-pending. And eligible for the expected $30B in forward SAF offtake projected in 2025 alone.

This isn’t a lucky streak. It’s a system. Plug, play, repeat. One refinery after another. American-made. American-fueled.

Wyatt Earp adjusts his hat. “I’ve seen schemes,” he says. “But this one’s got boots on the ground.”

Hickok added, with a smile, “How to get over the river was the bother. At last, after thinking a heap about it, I came to the conclusion that I always did: that the boldest plan is the best and safest.”

The Showdown

The lights dim again. The crowd leans in. Twain holds his breath.

The market’s in disarray. Demand for SAF is soaring. Supply? Nearly absent. Most producers are hybrids—ethanol here, biodiesel there—tied up in corporate side projects and private capital lockboxes.

XCF isn’t playing side pots. It’s the only U.S. public SAF company with real production, at commercial scale, with modular growth in hand. The site they operate was once part of a string of failed acquisitions, abandoned under RESC Renewables and Camber Energy. Now? It’s firing on all cylinders.

Twain whispers: “It was a busted mine claim turned motherlode. An American story, if I’ve ever seen one.” Harding folds. Earp tilts his brim. XCF doesn’t blink. It’s the mysterious oilman, and XCF, facing off, cards down, eyes locked. The room holds its breath. Who’s holding the aces?

Postscript: The Winnable Hand

If you’ve spent time in the renewable fuel saloon, you’ve seen the hopefuls: the pilot plants that never scale, the patent-holders with no feedstock, the financiers chasing headlines. Many fold before the turn.

XCF’s playing long and local. Building plants that hum with precision, not promises. Betting on domestic feedstocks and rural valor. Working with strategic partners like Phillips 66. Designing for flexibility. Scaling for impact. Is it enough?

We hope so. The SAF market needs 3B gallons by 2030. The feds want net-zero aviation by 2050. And the buyers—airlines, governments, the traveling public—aren’t interested in vaporware anymore. They want the real deal. They want gallons, now. Twain lands a stream in the spittoon, drawling “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did.” XCF nods. 

It’s a pioneer, riding west when the trail’s still uncertain. Building infrastructure on land where dreams once failed. Betting that American agriculture can fuel American skies.  Out back of the Old SAF Hotel, the wind has settled. A train whistle sounds in the dark. Another railcar pulls up to the heated spur, ready to take on a fresh load of fuel bound for the skies.

Inside, the dealer looks to XCF, looks to fossil. A bet, a raise, a call. The oilman reveals his cards. XCF is smiling. In an instant, we’ll see who wins the sky.  Twain closes his notebook. “The secret of getting ahead,” he says, “is getting started.”