In Brazil, Safras & Mercado reported that the international corn market should begin 2026 with a comfortable supply.
According to Safras & Mercado analyst Paulo Molinari, there is a good stock level in the largest price-setting market: the United States. “This scenario raises the first major question, which is the planting decision of US producers for the 2026 crop. Then it is necessary to assess the weather for the country’s summer, considering that conditions were perfect in 2025,” he assesses.
So far, the analyst points out that there are no signs yet of a serious weather situation in South America, with good crop development in both Brazil and Argentina. “Therefore, we will have to wait for the US harvest to determine prices,” he predicts.
“In the Brazilian market, we have the seasonality of better prices in the first half of the year, due to lower domestic supply, with prices converging towards exports in the second half. Export values depend directly on the Chicago Board of Trade and the exchange rate, but the new US harvest, the election year, and the expectation of record domestic demand for corn may suggest good opportunities for domestic sales,” he added.
Molinari indicates that the United States should significantly increase corn exports in the international market next year. “The Americans have already resumed sales aggressively, with a flow of 10 million tons above the previous year, which was already a record, with a projected shipment of 81 million tons for the 2025/26 season. Strong global demand, excluding China, signals high sales by the US next year,” he added.
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