The Digest’s 2025 Multi-Slide Guide to Understanding Uncertainty in Biofuel ILUC

IIASA’s GLOBIOM model simulates global land-use change across agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry to understand market-mediated responses. Research analyzed uncertainty in Induced Land-Use Change (ILUC) emissions from increased US soy-biodiesel demand using One-at-a-time and Monte Carlo simulations. Results show ILUC estimates are highly sensitive to economic and biophysical parameters, with oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia being a strong driver. ILUC factors are mostly positive, indicating emissions from natural land conversion.