The Digest’s 2025 Multi-Slide Guide to Low Carbon Fuels Market Trends

ICF forecasts environmental commodity pricing will likely rise, driven by domestic feedstock shortages versus aggressive Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). This tension is compounded by the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) limiting full credit for virgin oil biomass-based diesel to a 20% cap starting in 2028. Data shows Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) volumes in the California LCFS quadrupled from 2023 to 2024. Additionally, US soybean exports to China dropped to zero since May 2025 due to restrictive 34% tariffs. The RFS mandate was recently extended to 2029.