The Digest’s 2025 Multi-Slide Guide to ICF’s SAF and Carbon Outlook

ICF forecasts LCFS prices potentially hitting ~$100/ton by early 2026, trending toward $150 by 2032. They anticipate D3 RIN prices recovering, pushing above $3/RIN in 2026 once the 2023 Set Rule lapses. Policy issues include Treasury’s 45Z guidance, USDA climate-smart rules, and state waiver disputes. SAF trends favor Ethanol-to-Jet and e-SAF buildout. The loss of California as a biofuel outlet would pressure EPA RFS administration and increase market volatility.