Study shows California’s ILUC assumptions on soy out of date

In Missouri, a recent study commissioned by Clean Fuels Alliance America and Farmers Fueling the Future finds that California’s indirect land use change (ILUC) assumptions for U.S. soy-based biodiesel and renewable diesel are outdated lacking modern agricultural practices and current science.

The analysis, Land Use Change Emissions Associated with Soybeans: Considerations for California’s LCFS, conducted by Life Cycle Associates (LCA), highlights substantially lower ILUC emissions for soy-based fuels than those currently used by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Considerations include advances in economic modeling, land-use data, yield responsiveness, trade patterns and carbon stock measurements.

CARB last updated its soybean ILUC value in 2018 using modeling tools and data that predate many of today’s improvements in agricultural productivity and global market dynamics. The latest research shows ILUC values well below CARB’s current assumptions calculated with more recent global data through updated GTAP modeling. According to the report, improvements in modeling and data inputs have consistently reduced estimated ILUC emissions for soy-based biodiesel and renewable diesel, producing results that better align with observed land-use and market behavior.