Renewable Carbon Initiative outlines three possible pathways for carbon-based fuel demand until 2050s

In Germany, a new report by the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) develops and analyses three future scenarios for carbon-based fuel demand until 2050 – each a possible development under current policy rules. The results visualize that the demand for second-generation biomass biofuels will increase significantly, mainly due to the increasing quotas set for aviation fuels and shipping. This projection not only highlights potential risks to the ecological balance and resource sustainability that need to be managed carefully, but also poses significant barriers for other sectors that require renewable carbon to defossilize their products. In particular, the chemicals and materials sector has to rely on biogenic and captured carbon as a feedstock in the long term.

But in direct competition with the fuel sector and without comparable regulatory incentives, the sector will have severely limited access to second-generation biomass and captured carbon. However, the production of bio-based and synthetic fuels can also support the development of renewable carbon in chemicals, as some by-products of their production can be used as a chemical industry feedstock.

RCI commissioned experts from the nova-Institute (Germany) to prepare this report. It contains 11 tables and 9 graphics, as well as a detailed description of the latest fuel regulations in the European Union, which are of high value to stakeholders from other sectors with demand for biomass and CO2 utilization. Although the focus is on Europe, the report also includes global scenarios and analysis.