On the Radar: SAF Finds Its Glidepath

The conversation about Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has long been about altitude — bold goals, lofty aspirations, and the race to climb as fast as possible. But in aviation, pilots know that altitude isn’t enough. Attitude — the orientation of the aircraft, the crew’s mindset, the instruments in front of them — determines whether you’re really on a safe, stable glidepath.

That’s where the SAF sector is today: not just climbing but aligning, stabilizing its flight path, and making deliberate adjustments to reach net‑zero on schedule. The industry’s newest announcements — from XCF Global’s billion‑dollar build‑out to Sheffield’s NextGen‑SAF integration project — show a market that’s learning how to fly in formation, balancing ambition with navigational precision.

DIGEST HAZARD INDEX: Current SAF sector signal: Stable, Glidepath Confirmed. Hazard readings show no disruptive spikes; low narrative volatility; steady systemic integration.

Gauge readings

Gauge 1: Hazard Index — Our TCAS for Markets
In aviation, the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) warns pilots when they’re on a dangerous trajectory. The Hazard Index does the same for markets: it’s our narrative‑driven early‑warning system for systemic stress, helping us see turbulence long before traditional indicators like the VIX.

In backtests, the Hazard Index gave an early “pull‑up” warning for the 2008 financial crisis (August 2008 reading: 0.82, spiking well before Lehman’s collapse). During COVID’s onset in early 2020, the Index jumped to 0.69 as headlines whipsawed between lockdowns, fuel demand collapse, and bailout rumors — a classic case of narrative turbulence.

Current reading for SAF: 0.14 — low‑risk glidepath. By comparison, anything below 0.20 is typically calm cruising airspace. Right now, the SAF sector shows smooth narrative flow, low speculative froth, and strong structural follow‑through — a sector on instruments, not flying blind. 

If that reading begins to climb, the instrument would be flagging turbulence — think sudden feedstock price spikes, unexpected policy reversals, or technology scale‑up delays. Those are the market’s equivalent of wind shear: rare, but when they appear, you want to see them early.

Gauge 2: GTESI Vectors — Your Predictive Wind Shear System
If the Hazard Index is our TCAS, GTESI acts like a Predictive Wind Shear System, showing how a sector is adjusting to invisible currents. GTESI — the General Theory of Evolutionary Systems & Information — tracks how persistent a system is in resisting entropy.

We measure this with four “vectors”:

• IPR (Inverse Persistence Ratio): Gap between narrative hype and structural execution.
• SCD (Systemic Compression & Differentiation): How efficiently systems integrate and specialize.
• TRFI (Trust, Risk, Feedback & Information): Network stability and resilience.
• EED (Energy & Entropy Directionality): How well energy inputs are directed toward productive, persistent outputs.

Current SAF readout: IPR is narrowing (narrative finally matched by build‑outs), SCD is high (multi‑tech integration like MCFC + AFT), TRFI is strengthening (state‑private partnerships expand trust networks), and EED is improving(refinery conversions redirect energy toward higher‑value bioproducts).

Together, these gauges — like real cockpit instruments — help us distinguish between a safe, stable glidepath and hidden turbulence. Right now, the readings say: attitude aligned, course steady.

But as the sector nears cruising altitude, what new instruments will be needed? Will the next phase require sharper price‑tracking gauges, or more robust cross‑sector partnerships? Readers should watch for new policy frameworks, off‑take agreements, and actual gallons delivered — those are the true indicators of whether this glidepath holds.

Waypoint 1: XCF Global Lines Up for the Long Haul

The clearest signal of stability? XCF Global’s $1 billion investment to expand its SAF and renewable fuels platform, with three new U.S. sites — New Rise Reno 2 (by 2027), Fort Myers, FL, and Wilson, NC (by 2028). Each is targeting 40 million gallons per year, bringing total output to ~160 million gallons annually.

This is more than a takeoff roll — it’s setting the cruise configuration for a market that needs reliable supply to match airlines’ 2030 decarbonization commitments.

GTESI VECTOR READOUT – XCF GLOBAL
IPR: Narrowing — symbolic persistence (narrative) now matched by structural commitments (plants, capital).
TRFI: Strengthening — expanded trust network across regions; multi‑site execution improves feedback loops.

Waypoint 2: Sheffield Integrates Innovation

In the UK, the University of Sheffield’s NextGen‑SAF project is pushing integration as the sector’s next discipline. Backed by government funding, the project combines Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFC) — for generating hydrogen and capturing CO₂ — with an Advanced Fischer‑Tropsch (AFT) reactor to synthesize hydrocarbons for SAF. Airbus and Boeing are backing the consortium, signaling market confidence in the system’s operability and scalability.

This isn’t just another demo. It’s a proof‑of‑concept for convergent tech pathways that cut costs, compress complexity, and de‑risk future builds.

GTESI VECTOR READOUT – NEXTGEN‑SAF
SCD: High — combining MCFC + AFT compresses systems and creates differentiated, defensible IP.
EED: Optimized — multiple energy inputs captured and directed toward a unified output stream.

Waypoint 3: Asia Locks In Supply Resilience

In China, CNAF (China National Aviation Fuel Group) has invested $36.4 million for a 10% stake in Lianyungang Jiaao Enprotech, the first company on the country’s official SAF “Export Whitelist.” Pilot SAF programs at four major airports are now in motion, with routine bio‑jet fueling planned by 2025.

Vietnam is also aligning on the glidepath: Petrolimex and Keppel Group have signed an MoI to assess SAF production technologies and feasibility, targeting Vietnam’s first domestic SAF facility in line with net‑zero by 2050.

GTESI VECTOR READOUT – CNAF & VIETNAM INITIATIVES
TRFI: Strengthening — state‑backed capital and cross‑border partnerships build multi‑layer trust. These expanded trust networks aren’t abstract. They lower financing risk for private investors, cut red tape for cross‑border projects, and accelerate deployment timelines — turning state support into real market resilience.

IPR: Balanced — narrative ambition (COP26 pledges) now matched by real investments. A few years ago, SAF headlines often ran ahead of reality — projects announced without funding, volumes promised but not delivered. Today, with XCF Global committing $1 billion to bricks‑and‑mortar plants, the gap between narrative and execution has narrowed dramatically

Waypoint 4: Novel Feedstocks & Retrofits

The sector is also correcting course toward cost efficiency and resource abundance:

• In the Netherlands, SeaO2 (with TU Delft, University of Twente, and NERA) is developing e‑SAF from seawater, extracting CO₂ and ultrapure water for hydrogen formation. Funded with $1.9 million, it’s a decentralized, resource‑efficient approach.
• In Italy, the European Investment Bank is backing Eni’s $578 million refinery conversion in Livorno, transforming legacy assets into hydrogenated biofuel and SAF production hubs.
• In Ghana, F&B Bio Recyclage is tackling two problems at once: turning municipal solid waste into SAF.
• In Korea, LG Chem and Enilive are building the country’s first HVO & SAF plant, processing 400,000 tons/year of renewable feedstock by 2027, with Enilive’s biorefining capacity targeting 5 million tons by 2030.

GTESI VECTOR READOUT – FEEDSTOCK & RETROFIT PROJECTS
SCD: Rising — integrating waste, seawater, and refinery retrofits creates modular, low‑cost production pathways. his integration matters because it compresses complexity — capturing hydrogen and CO₂ in one step, then converting them to hydrocarbons without separate, siloed processes. The result: fewer moving parts, faster scale‑up, and intellectual property that competitors can’t easily replicate.

EED: Improving — legacy infrastructure re‑channeled for new, high‑entropy‑exporting fuels.

Waypoint 5: Instruments Set — Policy & Standardization

Policy is keeping the industry on course. The UK government de‑risked NextGen‑SAF, and Netherlands’ TKI program funded SeaO2. That UK funding didn’t just validate Sheffield’s concept — it unlocked matching private investment and cut project lead times by reducing permitting and financing risk.

Thailand’s adoption of ASTM D7566 means new SAF producers can plug into existing global supply chains without extra certification hurdles, speeding adoption by airlines and simplifying logistics

These aren’t symbolic gestures. They’re instrument checks: aligning regulatory frameworks with operational reality so the sector can keep its glidepath steady.

Cleared for Approach

In aviation, a good glidepath isn’t dramatic. It’s steady. Controlled. Corrected in real time by pilots who know their instruments and trust their flight plan.

That’s what we’re seeing in SAF: narrative catching up to infrastructure, ambition matching execution, and a clear, data‑supported trajectory toward net‑zero aviation.