Investment Decision or Infinite Delay? Looking at the progress, prospects for Alcohol to Jet Technology

As the search for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) intensifies, alcohol-to-jet technology has emerged as a promising yet perplexing pathway. Promising because of the progress on technology and projects. Perplexing because traditional techno-economic analysis is capturing part of the story—costs, feedstock flows, policy incentives—but struggles to explain why some technologies persist and others stall, even with similar numbers on the page.

We’ve heard the jests, too. That FID does not stand for Final Investment Decision, but Financier’s Infinite Delay. We think there’s more going on behind the scenes than the critics concede, there’s more progress than problems. So, why the skepticism?

To better understand the disconnect between industrial progress and investor passion, we’ve developed for you today a GTESI analysis, which we’ve used to understand E15 ethanol, overall bioeconomy signaling, and other topics in the past. More on the General Theory of Evolutionary Systems and Information (GTESI) as an analytic framework here, or you can visit gtesi.com where dozens of articles and tools for a wide range of subjects including the bioeconomy are available.

GTESI doesn’t aim to criticize; it illuminates. It shows where symbolic momentum outpaces thermodynamic reality, where complexity can quietly choke scale, and where entropy—whether in carbon credits, heat, or public trust—gets re-imported just as fast as it’s shed. This analysis offers a constructive look at ATJ as a clarity pass. GTESI shows what’s working, what needs tuning, and where hidden risks and resilience patterns lie. In a crowded space of hopeful narratives, GTESI helps focus progress—and that, more than anything, may be what keeps ATJ alive and evolving.

I. GTESI Risk Vector Scores

II. Sector Patterns

• Complexity Overload: Unlike HEFA, the ATJ process contains 4–6 major unit operations, each with high sensitivity to feedstock, energy cost, and purity. GTESI flags this as a scaling constraint.
• Symbolic Trust Mismatch: The ethanol economy has symbolic baggage (corn, subsidies), which is not easily harmonized with aviation’s high-purity, low-risk image.
• Entropy Re-import Problem: Process generates water and dilutes carbon value. 2.1 gallons of ethanol → 1 gallon of jet is a net information dilution event.
• Delayed IPR Emergence: With no successful large-scale plant, rituals are mostly anticipatory, not confirmatory. System remains speculative.

III. GTESI Highlights from Source Data

• Gevo LCA Report (CRA): Despite a well-argued emissions case, the loss of volume and carbon credits in the ETJ pathway undermines the narrative payoff.
• Saddler & Comer: Complexity of scaling ethanol-based SAF and low carbon intensity loss confirm high SCD and entropy reinjection.
• ATJ Tech Papers: Frequent reliance on “future scale” and “policy bridge” arguments reveals symbolic gaps in present trust structures.

IV. GTESI Sector Forecast

• Short-Term (1–3 years): Modest gains via policy support, demonstration plants. TRFI will rise or collapse based on real project delivery.
• Mid-Term (4–7 years): Without large-scale operation and favorable LCA crediting, GTESI predicts narrative exhaustion and funder fatigue.
• Watch for: Projects slipping from FID to indefinite delay; loss of trust rituals (e.g., silent partners, vanished policy enthusiasm).

V. Takeaways

• ATJ is not a failure, but its symbolic momentum exceeds its thermodynamic coherence.
• It has potential, but must rapidly close the gap between narrative and entropy export reality.
• GTESI sees an IPR trap ahead: persistence is only likely with extraordinary trust rituals, breakthrough tech compression, or unusual policy fortification.

Summary: What GTESI Reveals That Traditional Analysis Misses

What do its concepts and acronyms mean?

IPR: Inverse Persistence Ratio: “Value without memory.”

IPR measures the gap between valuation persistence (e.g., market cap, investor enthusiasm) and operational memory (e.g., track record, cash flow, physical plant, ecosystem stability). A high IPR means price is sticking around — but the foundation is eroding. It’s like watching smoke in the sky when no-one is yelling “fire!”. Warning sign of symbolic inflation, over-valuation, or collapse risk.

SCD: Symbolic Compression Divergence: “When your story breaks from your system.”

SCD tracks the misalignment between public narrative (press releases, investor calls, strategic decks) and internal motion (technical progress, team stability, delivery timelines). A high SCD means the symbolic layer is leaking entropy — the story is losing coherence. Early indicator of reputational fragility, trust erosion, or memetic drift.

TRFI: Trust Ritual Failure Index: “Rituals keep systems sane.”

TRFI monitors the health of symbolic trust rituals: SEC filings, earnings calls, guidance cycles, leadership continuity, board signaling. A rising TRFI signals missed filings, ambiguous metrics, unexplained personnel shifts — cracks in the ceremonial foundation. When ritual breaks down, systems lose legitimacy — with investors, partners, regulators.

EED: Entropy Export Deficit: “Adaptation stalls, pressure builds.”

EED scores how well a system is exporting entropy — through innovation, expansion, alliances, new markets. A high EED means the system is hoarding entropy instead of offloading it — a pressure cooker instead of a pressure valve. Strong predictor of layoffs, retrenchment, sudden pivots, or collapse.

Core GTESI Concepts

How GTESI Works: A Diagnostic Tool

GTESI evaluates the motion-memory balance in a system. GTESI doesn’t replace financial models — it explains why they fail when they do. A healthy system shows

• Entropy exported (not bottled)
• Symbols that match reality
• Rituals that maintain trust
• Compression that enables repetition (manufacturing, contracts, team function)

A brittle system shows:

• IPR: Inverse Persistence Ratio — symbols outlasting performance
• SCD: Symbolic Compression Divergence — narrative drift
• TRFI: Trust Ritual Failure Index — cadence breakdowns, filings missed, metrics blurred
• EED: Entropy Export Deficit — innovation that fails to scale or simplify

More GTESI insights