Feast of the Assumptions: ADM, OCOchem, and the Right Form for biobased innovation

August 15 on the calendar marks the Feast of the Assumption. But in the bioeconomy, we’re forever caught in what I’d call the Feast of the Assumptions.

Assumptions that persistence will eventually pay off.
Assumptions that subsidies will close the cost gap.
Assumptions that CO₂ isn’t waste but feedstock.
Assumptions that this partnership will be the one that sticks.

Some assumptions are the yeast of progress. Others, the grit in the gears. Persistence and assumption aren’t the same — one adapts, the other resists — but they often sit down at the same table. Sometimes the meal nourishes, sometimes it just repeats on you.

That brings us to ADM and OCOchem.

The Form of Product

The assumption here is that formate is the right form for carbon’s next act.

OCOchem’s Carbon FluX Electrolyzer promises to take ADM’s biogenic CO₂ in Decatur and, with nothing fancier than water and electrons, transform it into formate — a flexible platform molecul. Formate can wear many costumes: fertilizer, solvent, de-icer, crop protector, fragrance, even a carrier for hydrogen and syngas.

It’s CO₂ with a job.

In fact, formate has been quietly feeding persistence for centuries: hay farmers have long used it to preserve alfalfa through the winter, preventing rot and spoilage. Without it, livestock survival rates would plummet in cold months. It’s not glamorous, but it’s persistence embodied: keeping food flows intact when nature turns hostile.

That’s why OCOchem chose formate. It’s not a speculative bet — it’s a molecule with an ancient résumé, simply waiting for a new production method.

The Form of Partnership

ADM has been here before. Partnerships with start-ups chasing waste-to-value miracles are practically a house specialty. Some fizzled. Some pivoted. But ADM persists.

Why? Because persistence is built into ADM’s form: grain keeps flowing, corn keeps fermenting, CO₂ keeps venting. To align with that flow, ADM needs technology partners who can bend into shape around those streams.

Enter OCOchem. A start-up backed by ARPA-E and Halliburton Labs, with electrolyzers scaled up 60,000-fold since 2020. OCOchem brings agility and moon-shot engineering; ADM brings pipes, scale, and customers. Sometimes those forms don’t fit and the dance ends early. But persistence means trying new shapes until the topology clicks.

In Decatur, this partnership will be tested in the most pragmatic way: can modular electrolyzers turn vent gas into a product slate fast enough, cheap enough, and reliable enough to matter?

The Form of Subsidy

Here’s where our assumptions often sour the feast.

Policy assumes that subsidies will fix the gap. But the form of subsidy usually rewards feedstock ownership, not molecule creation. It’s like giving grain to Africa instead of giving people the money to buy it. The gold doesn’t always reach the hungry.

What if support took a different form — one tied to conversion yield, or persistence of product? “CO₂ in versus molecule out.” “Entropy exported per dollar.” That would align incentive with persistence, not just vent-stack geography.

ADM and OCOchem will tap today’s credits, yes. But for this partnership to endure, formate has to stand on its own as cheaper, better, or more stable than its fossil twin. Otherwise persistence just prolongs assumption.

The Form of Persistence

OCOchem embodies the sprint form of persistence — six scale-ups in four years, world’s largest CO₂ electrolyzer cells at 1.5 m² each. ADM embodies the marathon form — half a century of crushing grain at Decatur.

Different forms, same law: persistence is survival through alignment. ADM persists because corn keeps flowing. OCOchem persists because CO₂ keeps flowing. Together, they’re betting that formate is the right form to capture that flow and turn it into durable structure.

The GTESI Read-Out: Four Vectors in Play

Let’s put ADM + OCOchem through the GTESI four-vector screen:

IPR — Input, Process, Return
ADM has the input (CO₂, water, electrons). OCOchem has the process (Carbon FluX Electrolyzer). The return is formate molecules that can drop into multiple value chains. The IPR test looks good — inputs are stable and cheap, processes are modular, returns are flexible.

SCD — Systemic Compression & Differentiation
Can formate act as a compressed platform that radiates into many differentiated markets? Yes. Fertilizers, solvents, de-icers, hydrogen carriers — all from one compact molecule. That’s the hallmark of SCD: compression at the core, variety at the edge.

TRFI — Trust, Risk, Feedback, Information
ADM provides the trust — they’ve been processing carbon flows for a century. OCOchem brings risk (new tech at scale), but also rapid feedback loops from electrochemical iteration. Information flows are strong; modular stacks mean lessons are portable and replicable.

EED — Energy, Entropy, Directionality
This is where the partnership could shine. OCOchem’s process exports entropy — turning a waste stream into structured molecules, with high Faradaic efficiency and no by-products. If renewable electricity stays cheap, the directionality is clear: entropy out, persistence in.

Together, the four vectors suggest more than assumption. They suggest alignment. And alignment is the precondition for persistence.

The Bottom Line

At the Feast of the Assumptions, everyone brings a dish:

• ADM brings the assumption that CO₂ is a feedstock worth valorizing.

• OCOchem brings the assumption that formate is the right platform.

• Policy brings the assumption that subsidies can bridge the gap.

And what persistence brings is the test.

If the forms align — product form, partnership form, subsidy form, GTESI vector form — persistence will turn assumption into structure. If not, it’ll be another course at the long feast.

Either way, ADM will keep showing up. Start-ups will keep showing up. And CO₂ will certainly keep showing up.

That’s not futility. That’s persistence in motion. And if OCOchem’s electrolyzers give carbon the right form, maybe this is the round when persistence and assumption finally share the same plate.