DNV report introduces GHG intensity metric, forecasts massive retrofit wave by 2030

In Norway, classification society DNV released its Maritime Forecast to 2050, introducing a greenhouse gas fuel intensity metric that underpins the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework and sets the foundation for new compliance modeling. The report defines how fuels will be evaluated by lifecycle emissions, with credit trading supported through reduction and sustainability units.

DNV estimates that up to 3,500 ships annually may require carbon capture or alternative fuel retrofits around 2030, while another 1,700 vessels may need energy efficiency upgrades such as batteries, wind-assisted propulsion, or waste heat recovery. The forecast incorporates a new assumption that allows emissions pooling across a fleet rather than requiring compliance on a vessel-by-vessel basis.

The report highlights that shipping’s decarbonization is likely to hinge less on a single breakthrough fuel and more on complex tradeoffs between retrofitting costs, regulatory deadlines, and fuel availability. With compliance options expected to vary sharply by ship type and trade route, DNV suggests that fleet-wide planning, not one-size-fits-all solutions, will shape the industry’s path to zero emissions.

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