In Canada, Farm Credit Canada says Canadian ethanol plant production through May decreased by 1% compared to the previous year, although output during that period has increased by 14% since 2021. The growth in ethanol production is attributed to improved efficiency, resulting in more ethanol produced per tonne of grain, with total grain use rising by 8% over the same interval. In the last year, ethanol accounted for 9.1% of the gasoline pool consumed in Canada, meaning that, on average, there was 0.091 liters of ethanol in each liter of gasoline. Since 2018, the proportion of Canadian ethanol in the gasoline pool has remained largely unchanged, reaching 3.9% last year. Imported ethanol now represents a larger portion, with over 5% of ethanol blended into gasoline in Canada coming primarily from the United States.
Since Canadian ethanol plants have been unable to meet domestic consumption, growing demand in other parts of the world will likely be met by producers in the U.S. Since Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) will continue to reduce the carbon intensity required in gasoline until 2030, additional ethanol – which helps reduce the carbon intensity – will be required. If ethanol production in Canada were to double, the country would continue to rely on imports from the United States; however, this increase in production would require an extra 4 million tonnes of grain.
