In California, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to strengthen the LCFS, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 30% by 2030 and 90% by 2045. This move is seen as a reaffirmation of California’s commitment to combating climate change, especially in light of federal policy shifts. As state Senator Henry Stern stated, “California has a long history of enacting visionary and affordable climate policies that are durable enough to endure major shifts in national politics.”
Opponents, including oil companies and consumer advocates, argue that the changes will burden Californians with higher fuel costs. The board itself acknowledges this possibility, stating in an earlier analysis that the changes “could increase the price of gasoline by 37 cents a gallon, on average, from 2024 through 2030.”
The LCFS, implemented in 2011, requires fuel producers to purchase tradable credits if their products exceed a set carbon emissions baseline. The revised policy aims to increase the production of low-carbon fuels by raising the carbon intensity reduction targets. The policy changes are projected to drive up the price of tradable credits, which had previously fallen to around $70 from over $200 in 2020.
