Brazil estimates $20B investment needed for biofuels by 2035

In Brazil, the Biofuel Supply Notebook was launched, an integral part of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2035. The study, prepared by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), in partnership with the Energy Research Company (EPE), presents detailed projections on the evolution of the supply and demand of biofuels in Brazil, considering the scenario of advancing the energy transition and strengthening of public policies for the sector.

According to the document, the ethanol supply is expected to grow about 30% over the next decade, reaching 51 billion liters in 2035. Corn ethanol, which accounts for 20% of production in 2024, will gain prominence and is expected to account for more than 30% of the total supply in 2035. The demand for ethanol fuel reaches 48.2 billion liters, ensuring a positive balance across the entire horizon of analysis.

The study also projects a technical potential of generating 5.9 GW medium of bioelectricity from the sugarcane bagasse at the end of the period, in addition to 6.4 billion Nm3 of biomethane derived from sugarcane residues (wines, filter pie, straws and tips), equivalent to about 10% of the national consumption of natural gas in 2024.

In relation to biodiesel, the projected demand reaches 13.9 billion liters in 2035, with soybean oil remaining as the main raw material. The installed capacity foreseen for the horizon is sufficient to meet the legal targets of mandatory mixing, with surpluses that can be directed to maritime transport and other uses. The National Program for the Production and Use of Biodiesel (PNPB) continues to play a strategic role in supporting family farming, stimulating social inclusion and income generation in rural areas.

The notebook also details the evolution of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). From 2030, announced projects are expected to deliver 1.7 billion liters per year, reaching 2.8 billion in 2035. This production will be sufficient to meet, on average, 66% of the emission reduction targets established by CORSIA and ProBioQAV in the decenal period.

In total, it is estimated that the investments needed to sustain the expansion of the biofuels chain by 2035 reach R$ 110 billion, including new biorefineries, modernization of plants and diversification of raw materials.