Japan SAF market to reach 4.48 million tons by 2036, research finds
In India, Epignosis Insights forecasts the Japan SAF market will grow from 245,000 tons in 2028 to 4.48 million tons by 2036, a volume expansion representing a 43.8% compound annual growth rate.
On a revenue basis, the market is projected to climb from $7.08 billion to $149.63 billion over the same period, an implied 46.4% CAGR.
According to the research, the primary catalyst behind this trajectory is Japan’s policy requiring 10% SAF usage on international flight departures by 2030. With the country’s international aviation sector consuming an estimated 10 to 12 million kiloliters of jet fuel annually, the mandate translates into demand for nearly 1 million kiloliters of SAF a year, a figure that exceeds current domestic production capability.
Epignosis Insights notes that this regulatory demand floor is what separates the Japan SAF market from markets driven primarily by voluntary airline pledges, giving refiners and financiers a measurable basis for capital commitments.
Category: SAF
