Amazon deforestation dropping, despite land use change predicted by ILUC?

DTN, reporting in depth on actual land use change in Brazil, said that “Amazon deforestation has fallen for the past five years, from 10,588 square miles in 2004 to 4,620 square miles last year, according to figures from Brazil’s National Institute of Space Research (INPE).”

Indirect Land Use Change models suggest that increased ethanol production in the US should lead to increased Amazonian deforestation. Gartlan also reports that a “recent study by the Imazon research group showed that only 4 percent of the Amazon, or 50 million acres, has recognized land title. Around 32 percent has already been invaded illegally, while 43 percent is protected in the form of national parks and Indian reserves.”

In addition, DTN is reporting that US corn and bean exports are remaining steady or increasing while Brazilian corn and soybean acreage is holding steady or shrinking. In addition, Gartlan writes, “A study carried out by the Soybean Work Group (GTS) earlier this year showed that of 630 samples of deforested areas since July 2006 only 12 had gone to soybeans and 200 to cattle. The remaining 418, or 70 percent, were unused indicating that the main reason for cutting down trees was for timber and land grabbing.”

Last June, the McClatchy papers reported that Brazil’s DETER monitoring system had detected more than 430 miles of deforestation in April 2008, while 2300 miles were destroyed in the August-April period, consistent with the INPE findings.

At the same time, Greenpeace is reporting that a three-year investigation, including an undercover investigation joined by the Guardian, has revealed extensive “laundering” of cattle raised on deforested rainforest in the Amazon. The Guardian reported on the Espiritu Santo farm, which claimed that it was observing Brazilian law that requires cattle ranches to maintain 80 percent of lands in the Amazon region under forest cover.

A Greenpeace-Guardian examination of GPS and satellite data showed that only 20-30 percent of the Espiritu Santo farm is under forest cover. According to the Guardian, the “Greenpeace report identifies dozens of farms like Espirito Santo that it says break the rules across Para and Mato Grosso to supply Bertin and other slaughter companies. Campaigners say there are probably hundreds or even thousands more.” Brazilian cattle processor Bertin reports blacklisting 138 suppliers for irregular activities.

Greenpeace also revealed a primary cause of deforestation, that newly converted cattle pasture becomes rapidly overrun by native grasses unsuitable for cattle grazing, and squatter farmers do not have the land management technique or the agrichemicals to maintain the grass quality, requiring them to clear more forest to feed the cattle.

Greenpeace also confirms that extensive settlement of squatters in the region (whose activities include cattle theft and slaughter), the existence of slave labor conditions, and intimidation by predatory farmers. The Guardian reports that a local village chief of the Parakana people said “If the government don’t find a solution we will solve it ourselves. We know how to make poison arrows and we are ready to kill people.”

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