Biofuels, hydrogen, hybrids, and more: Q&A exchange with a Biofuels Digest reader

A reader writes: Ethanol and Biodiesel are a Today solution without significant cost to vehicle owners, but requires a switch – sell of cars like those in Brazil. They would represent a replacement of 25-35% petro usage on highway today, and potentially 80%, in 10 years as laws change.

Today’s Hybrid/Electric Battery cars are a joke, farce. Late 1980 car’s are more fuel efficient. Hybrid cost 3x the fuel saving.
95% ethanol and biodiesel make sense, until hydrogen is perfected. In 1988, I bought a camry that avg 27/41 mpg – as good as today’s hybrid and bigger/better than my 2003 corolla, which get’s less mileage and weights more. They just have to simply, cut weight and friction by simplification. Fed’s should Mandate a single- best in class engine/drive train, i.e. most fuel efficient, lowest emission for each class and only allow that engine, regulate prices, then ban all others. Elimination of the Mechanical Nature of car engines, and create a better way to transfer combustion into perpetual, mechanical energy, like a turbo, jet engine and watch that converts combustion into perpetual energy that can be transferred, recaptured, stored then released and managed. An engine fights against itself and fails to harvest most energy, which is not recaptured, i.e. wasted in braking or friction with less than 10% efficient use of energy, considering driving habits.

What about alternatives for Electricity. Like L96, Water based electrical generation, The other one I saw was ethanol from grass, not corn. There is nothing easier, cheaper to grow than grass. These look to be the most likely, cost effective and profitable generator of alternate energy?

What are your thoughts on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells? The future of automobile is largely dependent on these technologies, any thoughts of where GM, Honda/Toyota is going to invest their money, and considered a viable technology. I see the future as Hydrogen, Wind, Geothermal, Water and Solar – Do you see any good investments? Most are private VC corporate, which tends to pocket gains to a select few.

Biofuels Digest replies:

Taking your last points first, power sources such as solar (on the mass scale), wind, and hydrogen are not yet commercially viable and I don’t have a clue actually when they will be so. Would that the day comes soon! My sense of the research — and I do try and keep up not only with the literature but consult with scientists who know this better than I do — is that we are not yet ready to establish a timeline for any of those energies to be viable on a mass scale, so I generally restrict myself to more tangible technologies.

A major concern for all of us has to be the development path of industrializing nations — especially China and India, which between them have 8X the population of the United States. Whatever the G8 do  do in terms of international policy, we have to consider the likelihood of adoption in those nations, and biofuels I think have a nice matchup there.

You are right to look beyond the hype and look at total energy savings. Doing the math on total carbon cost of ownership is an elusive pursuit, but you make good points on hybrids and overall energy savings. There is a substantial premium for the auto company that captures the hybrid market, so I think market forces are best for solving the problem of engine efficiency.

With respect to biofuels, the most promising near-term solutions are in sugar-based ethanol and biodiesel from jatropha. In the US, I suspect we will see a lot more E10 than E85 ethanol in the near-term, as 10% ethanol is considered an additive and can be put into any car without worry or expense, and does not materially affect performance. Getting to 10% in the US on ethanol would be around 15 billion gallons per year, and that’s about 1.2 times what we have in existing capacity + currently planned capacity. Flex-fuel vehicles will be a nice to have but not a need to have for a while to come. I would keep an eye out for diesel powered cars to make a comeback in the US, and biodiesel will be a bigger factor as I suspect the country will get to B20 in the same time frame as E10.

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