Advanced Biofuels capacity to reach 3.917 billion gallons by 2015; free downloadable project database

In Florida, Biofuels Digest is projecting that global advanced biofuels capacity will reach 3.917 billion gallons by 2015, based on company announcements to date. Today, the Digest released version 1.6 of its free Advanced Biofuels Tracking Database, projecting 2015 capacity for the first time.

The new database, which is the quarterly update tracking new projects and changes in capacity announced since July, includes updates on 18 companies and their projects in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Malaysia, Sweden, the US, and the UK.

Companies updating their guidance include Abengoa, Aurora Algae, BioProcess Algae, BlueFire Renewables, Chemrec, Fiberight, Green Star Products, Idemitsu Kosan, KiOR, KL Energy, MBD Energy, Murphy Oil, OriginOil, Petrobras, Solazyme, TMO Renewables, and BOP Biofuels.

The database now tracks 95 advanced biofuels projects, and projects that advanced biofuels capacity will reach 747 million gallons in 2011, 1.502 billion by 2012, 2.667 billion by 2013, and 3.561 billion gallons by 2014.

The updated database may be downloaded free, here.

In Massachusetts, a new report from Lux Research forecasts that global biofuel capacity will grow 7.8% annually to 53 billion gallons in 2015, while materials are on track to grow at 17.7% per year to reach 8.1 million tons in 2015. Titled “Bio-based Fuels and Materials Through 2015: Growing Capacity Past a Drop in the Bucket,” the report forecasts the most likely industry growth, but also models four different alternative scenarios. Each explores the impact of a potential disruptor: advanced technologies, new government regulations, deeper corporate involvement, and falling oil prices.

Lux concludes:

·  Although limited, growth in ethanol will rely on supportive government regulation. Increasing the U.S. ethanol blend limit to 15% would free up new demand for the fuel in the states, while increased Brazilian control over sugar speculators would prevent that country’s volatile sugar prices from encouraging its ethanol producers to switch to sugar production. Combined, these measures could boost ethanol capacity to 43 billion gallons by 2015, up from 34 billion gallons in the base case.

· Technology advances drive new capacity in bio-based fuels and materials. New technical processes based on algae oil and butanol could drive growth in biofuels to 78 billion gallons of total capacity by 2015. On the materials side, advances in technology could help expand capacity to 10.5 billion tons, largely driven by growth in succinic acid and ammonia producers.

· Bio-based fuels and materials need corporate backing. Increased corporate investment in either industry could fuel massive growth, particularly on the materials side where it could bring total capacity up to 12.4 million tons in 2015. Biofuel capacity also benefits from increased corporate participation, which could expand capacity to 65 billion gallons in 2015.

http://www.luxresearchinc.com